Paul Skenes, Red Sox and Prospect Watch
Aug 8, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Skenes, Red Sox and Prospect Watch
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Watching Paul Skenes PIT toss another exceptional outing yesterday had me dip into his career numbers. It’s still early, I know. But at 23yo Skenes now has amassed 47 big league starts during which he has pitched 277 innings with a 1.95 ERA and a 5 to 1 K/BB rate. His career ERA+ sits at 214 and to put this in perspective the great Pedro Martinez delivered a career ERA+ of 154. Martinez had an ERA+ over 214 just three times in his career and each time won him a Cy Young Award! Skenes finished 3rd in NL CY voting last year and will get plenty of votes this year, yet he will almost assuredly fall short again. Skenes needs a stronger team context for voters (and fans) to truly appreciate his greatness at this point of his career.
And from a Fantasy Baseball standpoint, particularly Dynasty, Skenes would get a boost with a better organization. I’m not suggesting a trade is coming for Skenes. It’s possible, but unlikely for at least several more years. This is a player not set to reach free agency until 2030 so it would be surprising to see even the Pirates deal him before 2028 or 2029.
In addition to having a subpar offense the Pirates only have one qualified regular with a positive defensive rating. And that’s Oneil Cruz who is just as likely to misplay a routine ball in CF as he is to make an amazing catch or throw. The Fantasy Baseball point is really that exploring selling Skenes in Dynasty might be the play to make at this point. Only for full value of course.
The Red Sox are 4 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East, while holding the top Wild Card position. They are very likely to make the playoffs and the two biggest reasons will be Garret Crochet (who has been excellent!) and the rebound from Trevor Story that few saw coming. Despite a poor May Story is approaching a 20/20 season - currently carrying a .261/61/18/73/19 line. It would mark the 4th time in his career that Story delivers 20/20 and the first time since 2021 (and the first time outside of Colorado). Boston generally hits Story 4th, 5th or 6th in the lineup and he has particularly thrived in the 4 and 5 holes. He’s also done his best work in medium to high leverage at-bats. Cal Raleigh will rightfully be recognized as the single player that contributed to the most Fantasy Baseball Championships this year. But Trevor Story will be on the short list of names that follow. It’s been an amazing return for a player generally drafted in the 275 ADP range this year.
Roman Anthony BOS is a young 21 years old, 3 years out of high school, and just signed an 8 year / $130m contract. I absolutely love seeing players like this get paid earlier in their careers versus the mid to late career contracts given out to league average / declining type players. Anthony has the markings of an elite hitter and a long term fan favorite in Boston. Don’t let the 2 home runs in 194 plate appearances fool you. The power is there as evidenced by elite exit velo’s and hard hit rates. Anthony’s profile makes for one of the most exciting long term dynasty assets in the game.
Kristian Campbell BOS had a huge 2024, made the team in 2025, signed an 8 year / $60m contract, and then pretty much imploded. Since going back to AAA Campbell has played a lot of first base and some second base. We know he can also play shortstop and outfield if needed. While not strong defensively it’s the bat that has held Campbell back in 2025. Checking in on his progress Campbell just had a 15 game hitting streak come to an end. He’s put up a .373/14/3/9/2 since Jul 19 while walking 7 times against 13 punch outs over 68 plate appearances. It’s promising and you know with the big contract the Red Sox are anxious to get Campbell back in Boston soon.
Vaughn Grissom BOS seems to be off of most everyones radar. Including the Boston Red Sox. Still without a clear defensive home Grissom has at least stepped it up at the plate. Since Jun 26 he has a .308/23/7/22/1 slash at AAA. Now 24yo Grissom has just one MILB option remaining, which probably is contributing to his stay at AAA. Given the Red Sox depth of talent we may see Grissom traded again before the 2026 season begins. He looks to be a league average to a bit above type hitter and likely gets a chance somewhere next season.
Willy Adames SF was hard to stick with for the first half of 2025. His transition to the Giants, particularly Oracle Park, has been a struggle. But since Jul 1 Adames is hitting .293 with 9 home runs, 23 runs scored and 25 RBI. That’s equates to a 173 wRC+, which is good enough for 10th in baseball over the last month plus.
An even more surprising name in the wRC+ Top 10 since Jul 1 is Isaac Collins MLW. On no ones Fantasy radar coming into 2025 Collins has posted a .357 BA (.438 BABIP) with solid counting stats over his last 28 games played. He also seems locked into a regular role, particularly with Jackson Chourio hitting the shelf. Is there a team in baseball that gets more from unexpected contributors than the Brewers?!?
There aren’t many, if any, players in baseball that have raised their stock more than Geraldo Perdomo ARI has this season. The DBacks clearly knew what they were doing when they locked Perdomo up with a 4 year / $45m extension this past offseason. Perdomo has rewarded the DBacks confidence by transitioning from a glove first player to a legitimate offensive threat. He’s carrying a .378 OBP to go along with career highs in home runs (11), RBI (75), and steals (17). Perdomo’s elevated profile has likely moved Jordan Lawlar to 3B and helped shift Tommy Troy into a 2B or Utility type.
Prospect Watch:
Jaison Chourio CLE has had a season to forget. Coming off a really interesting 2024 campaign at A ball Jackson’s little brother has struggled in 2025 at High A. He’s also been hurt. We have to keep in mind that Jaison just turned 20 years old and that progression is rarely linear for prospects. So on a positive note Jaison is riding an 8 game hitting streak going 13 for 35 (.371 BA) since Jul 29. Next season will be a critical one for Jaison as it will likely give us a much better understanding of what to expect from him moving forward.
You know that I’m at the ballpark as much as I can be. The Arkansas Travelers (Mariners AA) are my home MILB team and I carry season tickets there. This week we have had the Frisco RoughRiders in town. That would be the Sebastian Walcott led RoughRiders.
Between having Walcott on the field and getting to see the Travelers revamped lineup that features 3 of the Mariners top prospects it’s been a fun home stand. And it presents a good opportunity to share some observations on a few of the prospects involved. Here’s the rundown:
Sebastian Walcott TEX is generally regarded as a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. While his 2025 stat line at AA hasn’t been overwhelming it’s critical to keep in mind that Walcott just turned 19 years old in March. That’s 3 to 4 years younger than most players in AA and for perspective he would just be a sophomore in college if he had gone that route. Signed out of the Bahama’s in 2023 Walcott has steadily risen through the Rangers organization and very likely will see big league playing time next year at 20 years old.
With quite a few in-person looks at Walcott this year I can offer that he is very athletic for his size (listed 6’4 / 190 lbs) and looks like he can still add muscle to his frame. Walcott has been solid on defense and the ball jumps off his bat. Of particular interest has been his willingness to work a walk and to use the opposite field. This sets Walcott up exceptionally well given that he has plenty of power to drive the ball out to any part of the ballpark. So far it’s the projectable aspects of Walcotts game that are pushing his prospect rank more than his performance. With a good sample size of games watched it’s pretty easy for me to agree with this.
Leandro Lopez TEX is a prospect that was not on my radar and appears to still be off of most. That changed for me this week after watching him easily handle an above average Travelers lineup. Lopez went 5 innings, facing just 17 batters, allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk, while striking out 6. This while facing Colt Emerson, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes. It was impressive and is supported by the fact that Lopez has allowed more than 2 earned runs in a game just three times in 18 outings this season. He’s sitting on a 1.90 ERA over 80.2 combined innings across High A and AA. This while carrying a 10.82 K/9. Lopez is 23yo and signed out of the Dominican in 2021. Add him to your watch list and keep in mind there is still some reliever risk in his profile.
Speaking of relievers, Wilian Bormie TEX impressed in his AA debut. Texas converted Bormie to a reliever this season and it’s elevating his performance. Still just 22yo Bormie is a signee out of the Dominican who made his state side debut in 2023. He’s punching hitters out at a 13 per 9 rate, so his stuff clearly plays. Bromie sits around 97 on his FB and can touch 100. Yet it seems his slider is more of his featured pitch. If Bromie can improve command, particularly on the fastball, a leverage role in a big league bullpen should be in his future. Since he is Rule 5 eligible the Rangers will have to make a decision to protect Bromie or risk another team grabbing him.
Colt Emerson SEA made his AA debut this past Tuesday. I’ve been waiting all season for Emerson’s arrival. I loved his swing video scouting him when he was drafted in 2023 and had hoped we would see him earlier in the season with the Travelers. Emerson’s bat has been a bit slower to develop than expected but realistically he is doing just fine. Literally just turning 20 years old in July Emerson is handling himself exceptionally well. The glove looks near big league ready and the bat will follow. Emerson works the count, will take a walk, and keeps his strikeout rate below 20%. All particularly impressive given his age and the fact he has only 187 games of professional experience. JP Crawford’s contract runs through the end of 2026 and it’s apparent the Mariners intend to have Emerson ready to take over shortstop by then.
Michael Arroyo SEA is hitting .286 since reaching AA. He’s done this while also dramatically cutting his strikeouts from the low 20% range to just 11%. And he’s still drawing walks in over 12% of his plate appearances. What I continue to see is an advanced approach, really good hands at the plate, and an ability to drive the ball up the middle - particularly to RC. Arroyo isn’t going to wow anyone with his glove, yet he makes most of the plays he should at 2B. This is a bat first profile with limited defensive value. It’s going to be particularly curious to see what happens next year in Seattle as you have a stronger defensive player at 2B in Cole Young working to establish himself and a much more impactful bat in Michael Arroyo on the way.
Lazaro Montes SEA has struggled a bit at AA. Hitting just .217 with a 32% K rate since his arrival. Montes has BIG power, legit to all fields. But I’m holding my position that an adjustment in his hands (on set) is needed. Current mechanics exacerbate what is already a long looping swing. As is Montes will do damage, particularly on mistakes, but big league pitching (particularly high heat) will likely overwhelm him for the most part.
That’s a wrap for today. Jurrangelo Cijntje SEA is set for his AA debut Saturday night so I should have some notes for you next week on his outing.
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