Opening Day Incoming
Mar 21, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Opening Day Incoming
Now that the Tokyo series is behind us we can focus on the stateside Opening Day. Which, clearly, is my favorite day of the year! I’ve taken off work my entire life to binge OD baseball and I will be planted in front of the TV again this year. Hopefully you will be doing the same thing!
Before we take a look at a stack of OD thoughts let’s discuss the Tokyo series for a moment. I woke up early each morning to watch it and tuned into the Chicago Cubs broadcast both times. It’s clear Japan loves baseball and the games were filled with global representation. Shohei Ohtani, the games biggest star, did his thing and rocked a home run in Gm 2. We saw Seiya Suzuki (0 for 9 with 4 K’s), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (solid outing), and Roki Sasaki’s MLB debut. Sasaki had a bumpy outing that raised a few questions yet his raw stuff was obvious.
Another observation from Tokyo is that Pete Crow-Armstrong has a strong following in Japan. Not surprising, he’s electric and also swaggy. PCA enjoyed a ridiculous spring hitting .519 with 3 HR, 9 RS, 11 RBI, and 2 SB. All while playing other worldly defense. If we are looking for something to work on PCA had zero walks in 28 spring PA’s. He had a fairly aggressive plate approach in the minors and keeping the K’s down will be a growth opportunity. Looking at 2025, PCA is poised to breakout. A projected ZIPS DC slash of .249/82/16/73/33 feels reasonable and makes for a blossoming star given the defensive value that comes with his profile.
My last Tokyo related note is that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been brilliant in their approach to global marketing. The impact it must have on their revenue is likely larger than anyone may expect and it clearly helps feed the disproportionately high team salary year in and year out.
Moving on to a stack of late spring to OD thoughts:
Position battles typify spring training every year and we have interesting ones again this season. There are four prospects pretty much everyone is now following as they have been building towards making OD rosters.
The first is Matt Shaw CHC who did indeed debut with the Cubs in Tokyo. Shaw had a quiet series picking up a hit (c’mon, that was an error!) and a run scored in 9 PA’s. More importantly though, he looked comfortable and didn’t seem overmatched. Shaw was the 13th overall pick in 2023 and is only 23 years old. And here he is, with 3B for the Chicago Cubs his to hold onto. And I expect him to do just that. Shaw has kept his K rate under 20% at every level in pro ball and paired that with an 11% walk rate in 2024. It’s a strong approach paired with power and speed.
Watching Shaw at the plate I have no idea how he operates so well with his unusual footwork and the leg kick he carries. But its worked for him so far and he is really able to impact the ball, You can just see that he is at the plate looking to do damage each and every at bat.
Next we have Cam Smith HOU who’s stock has skyrocketed since being drafted 14th overall last year. It’s been a meteoric climb and Smith now has a shot to make the Astros OD roster despite only 134 minor league PA’s. Smith destroyed the ball this spring and sure looks like the Astros best overall option (not defensively) in RF, even with such limited experience there.
Smith’s swing is surprisingly compact for such a large player. I read a bit this morning where a teammate described him as a “Transformer” when discussing how Smith is built. At a listed 6’3 and 224 lbs you rarely see a RH hitter with this type of swing. It will allow Smith to get a great look at pitches as he can wait longer than most. Here’s a great example where he takes a pitch out to RF:
I’m a believer in Smith, whether he breaks camp or he’s up in mid-May this is an impact ballplayer. He was the main return in the Kyle Tucker trade and might shape up as an excellent long term move for the Astros.
The Boston Red Sox have given Kristian Campbell every chance to lock up an OD roster spot. He’s had a bumpy spring yet remains in camp and would likely play in some form of a utility role if he makes the club. Campbell looks like he would benefit from a bit more seasoning and that’s my expectation. But given what a great offseason the Red Sox have had they may decide they can afford to let him work it out at the big league level.
And finally there is Christian Moore with the Los Angeles Angels. Moore likely has the lowest ceiling of this group and has not impressed this spring. Still, the Angels seem committed to giving Moore every chance to make the team as evidenced by his whopping 48 PA’s in ST. While it looks like Moore needs more time in the minors the Angels may break camp with him or promote him as soon as his bat heats up.
Easing on to other notes, did you see Spencer Strider’s spring debut? He was dominant, overpowering even with the fastball sitting more mid-90’s than upper-90’s. Given his arm history and the reality that elite velocity greatly contributes to arm injuries it would actually be good to see Strider sit mid-90’s and occasionally dial it up when needed.
Strider will likely make his season debut in late April and will join Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach at the top of the Braves rotation. And what a top 3 that is! Let’s call them Triple S for now and think about what a healthier Braves team might do with a rotation like this. This takes a lot of pressure off of the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation, which will be filled with some combination of Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith Shawver and Ian Anderson.
Lopez has injury concerns, Holmes can float between the bullpen and rotation, while AJSS had a great spring and may be the next locked in starter. With regards to Ian Anderson, I’m just not buying it and suspect the Braves aren’t either. He looks to slide into a spot starter role or even be dealt if an opportunity presents.
Staying on rotations for a few more teams, let’s discuss the Tigers. Detroit has quietly put together a strong top 5 in reigning CY Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson (breakout coming), Casey Mize, and Jackson Jobe. For depth they have Alex Cobb and Kenta Maeda if either can stay healthy enough to contribute.
Reese Olson is one of my key targets this year and I am expecting big things. Casey Mize shoved all spring and may be putting it together while Jackson Jobe at 22yo will be able to ease into his big league career with reduced pressure at the back of this rotation. Keep in mind that Comerica Park is one of the more pitcher friendly parks and when Parker Meadows gets back on the field they will have an OF that covers a ton of ground.
While the Braves and Tigers rotations are elevating the New York Yankees rotation has collapsed. To be fair, it was a fragile situation even before the injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. Cole is gone until mid 2026 and Gil may be back later this year, but shoulders can be problematic. Now the Yankees have Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, and Carlos Carrasco pencilled in. Rodon comes with a stack of question marks, Fried has had recurring arm issues, Stroman overpowers no one, and Schmidt is trying to get healthy enough to make his first turn. Warren and Carrasco both shined at times this spring and will be integral to how this plays out.
One more pitching note, I always hate to see the arm injuries and every spring training is seemingly loaded with them. In the last week Jared Jones PIT and Ryan Weathers MIA have joined the sore elbow club. We are awaiting word on Jones with a second medical opinion coming. This usually means surgery has already been recommended. And a Weathers update is pending. Two young upside arms with all the promise may have to wait until 2026 to return unless there is some surprising good news lurking.
Listening to MLB radio this week I heard a discussion between Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez regarding Spencer Torkelson’s future and his current role with the Detroit Tigers. Tork has had a strong spring and reportedly made swing changes this off-season. I’m hoping to catch Tork at work so I can compare to the player of recent years. He’s just not been good so far in his career, particularly in the context of being 2020’s 1.1 pick. If Tork can elevate it would absolutely help the Tigers in their bid to win the AL Central. Currently though, Tork is behind Colt Keith at 1B and finds himself without a clear path to regular playing time.
I caught a blurb this morning that Eloy Jimenez TAM didn’t make the OD roster for the Rays. Eloy had an ok spring but this is only surprising in the context of how far he has fallen from his days of being a top 10 prospect with a 60 FV (future value). Now 28yo Eloy may have a tough time finding consistent big league work anywhere. This is pretty much a DH only profile and comes with a persistent injury risk.
We didn’t get to see a lot of him, but 18yo Konnor Griffin made a big impression on pretty much everyone this spring. The Pirates need to find their offense to take advantage of so much top end pitching and Griffin may be able to contribute by mid 2027. Hopefully Griffin can break the Pirates recent trend of struggling to develop hitters.
Jac Caglianone KC is another early 2024 draft pick catching attention this spring. He’s crushed three home runs and is currently sitting with a .529 BA through 22 PA’s. Caglianone is not a threat to make the OD roster and will likely start the season at High A or AA. He is, however, a possible mid-to-late season call-up. The power is prodigious and the larger question may be how do you fit Caglianone in the same lineup with Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez.
That’s all for today. More to come soon.
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