Acuna Jr., Cam, Devers, and Prospect Watch
June 18, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Acuna Jr., Cam, Devers, and Prospect Watch
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Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL is having a huge impact since returning from his 2nd ACL repair. Acuna Jr.’s production so far is pacing for an eye popping .392/147/51/95/7 over 162 games. This includes a .495 OBP, .696 SLG, 1.191 OPS and a 227 wRC+. And it’s driven by a 94.5 average EV along with a 19.3% barrel rate. The eye test supports Acuna Jr. is healthy and locked in. We discussed previously that steals will be down for him this year and while that still holds true Acuna Jr. appears to be running as well as he was pre-injury last year. This is just a bit below (27.6 vs 28.0 sprint speed) where he was in his 73 steal 2023.
Jordan Westburg BAL missed a month and a half with injury. Since his return Westburg is .385/7/3/8/0 over 7 games. He looks locked in hitting in the middle of an Orioles lineup that should be performing much better than it has. While health has been a concern in Westburg’s short career he presents as a really attractive Fantasy Baseball trade target, particularly given his 2B, 3B, MI, CI, U eligibility in most leagues.
Speaking of position eligibility, how about Willi Castro MIN since May 30?!? The Twins uber utility player is on a hot streak going .393/12/5/10/1 over his last 69 plate appearances. Castro has hit 3rd in the order his last 3 games and is regularly seeing time at 2B, 3B, RF and LF. It may just be a heater but Castro gets to the sweet spot often (85th percentile) and quietly put together a solid .247/89/12/60/14 slash last year. Grab him as a hot hand if available.
Brent Rooker ATH needs just one more game in the outfield (last played the field Jun 9) to reach 10 for the season. This will clear Rooker to move out of the utility slot and into an OF position in most any Fantasy Baseball league. I’ve been watching the Athletics lineup daily given the number of shares I’m holding in NFBC draft and hold formats. This is the time of year where injuries start to really pile up and lineup flexibility becomes so important. It will be extremely helpful to shift Rooker over to OF, particularly given how good he has been at .276/46/15/41/2.
Brent Rooker Baseball Savant
Next up - OF eligibility
This is a reminder that Cam Smith HOU is still a young 22yo just drafted out of Florida State last year. The fact that he is sitting on a 115 wRC+ after 220 big league plate appearances is pretty remarkable. Early season struggles moved Smith off of some radars but that is starting to change again. Last night he went 4 for 5 with 2 home runs, 3 runs scored, and 3 RBI. If you go back to June 8 Smith is hitting .361 with a 189 wRC+. He’s had hits in 8 of 9 games over that stretch. There’s still development needed in Smith’s plate approach but the 90th percentile bat speed and 91st percentile sprint speed speak volumes of the upside. Smith’s very athletic for a big man and the fact that he has been an asset on defense while playing a new position is impressive. We are looking at a strong long term asset as well as a player that should have a substantially better 2nd half of the season.
Moving past the narrative surrounding the Rafael Devers SF trade it’s worth considering what impact his new team and ballpark are likely to have on his production moving forward. It feels intuitive to think that moving from Fenway Park to Oracle Park will dampen production but at least as far as home runs are concerned that doesn’t appear to be the case. Devers career expected home runs in Fenway sits at 202, the same number for Oracle Park. Both fall 10% short of his 223 actual career big flys. However, going a bit further and looking at current Park Factors on Baseball Savant we do indeed find Fenway #2 with a 105 index versus Oracle at #26 with a 96 index. That’s a big swing and it’s amplified even more looking at runs scored where Fenway indexes 110 versus 92 for Oracle.
Devers career splits have him as a .293 hitter in Fenway versus .266 on the road. Conversely Devers has 120 career home runs on the road versus 95 at Fenway. So while Oracle is a pretty clear overall ballpark downgrade for Devers, his home run totals may not be meaningfully impacted.
The team context proves to be unfavorable as well and may be an even bigger concern. So far this season the Red Sox are 6th in runs scored and in OPS - while the Giants are 15th and 22nd. As was the case in Boston, Devers will be the one bat you can’t let beat you in the Giants lineup. It’s possible Adames gets a lift with Devers hitting behind him. If so, hitting behind Jung Ho Lee and Adames could at least be interesting but likely short of the table setters in Boston. Heliot Ramos and eventually Matt Chapman likely provide a similar level of protection for Devers compared to what he had in Boston.
That’s a lot of words to sum up that Devers offensive profile is likely a bit less attractive in San Francisco. Expect him to still be productive though and it’s possible he picks up position eligibility so he can moved out of the Utility spot. All of this puts Devers in a hold him if you have him context and avoid dealing for him if you don’t.
The Minnesota Twins have lost 8 of their last 10 games and now sit on a 36-36 record, 10 games back of the Tigers. The rotation is in shambles with Pablo Lopez out for months and Bailey Ober regressing into a mess. This while Zebby Mathews has shoulder issues of his own and Chris Paddack has come back to reality, overpowering no one with his 6.33 K/9.
From a Fantasy Baseball standpoint you have Joe Ryan, who has been pretty great at the top of the rotation, and there’s hope David Festa can step up. Andrew Morris may get a look at some point as well, but he has not faired well since hitting AAA. Morris has a solid arsenal, but not overpowering. Still not on the 40 he may stay at AAA until needs push the Twins into clearing roster space for him.
Prospect Watch:
Roman Anthony BOS is our latest reminder of just how hard the transition from AA or AAA to the big leagues can be. He’s 2 for 25 so far with the Red Sox, with 8 K’s to just 2 walks. Keep in mind that Anthony just turned 21yo and don’t overlook that his bat speed and EV have been excellent in his small sample. Anthony has also avoided chasing pitches for the most part. Something you wouldn’t necessarily expect given his age and experience. The Devers trade may allow the Red Sox to stick with Anthony once Wilyer Abreu returns (expected this Fri). Given the long leash they have had with Kristen Campbell it seems likely Anthony will have the runway to get acclimated. This is a loud bat with a sound plate approach, the payoff will likely be significant.
Jacob Misiorowski MLW had a wild yet very on-brand debut Jun 12. He went 5 innings for the win, giving up no hits, while striking out 5 and walking 4 against the Cardinals. Misiorowski draws a tougher assignment for his second outing (tonight) as he faces the Cubs in Wrigley. It was curious that the Brewers promoted Misiorowski as opposed to calling Logan Henderson back up. Henderson has logged 3 AAA starts since his demotion, pitching 13.1 innings while giving up 13 hits, 3 walks, striking out 15 and allowing just 1 earned run. Misiorowski and Henderson are fairly opposite in their arsenals and approach yet both are likely to be mainstays in the Brewers rotation for years to come. Misiorowski does have some reliever risk given his two pitch reliance and command challenges but his stuff can be so overpowering you know the Brewers want to see him in the rotation long term.
Konnor Griffin PIT had a recent promotion to High A after 50 games at A ball. Since his promotion Griffin has hit .387/10/2/8/6 with 4 walks against just 3 K’s in 37 plate appearances. On the season Griffin is hitting .345/59/11/44/32 and will almost assuredly see AA this season. In fact, it may happen as soon as July which is remarkable given Griffin just turned 19 in late April. Rotowire has Griffin as the #8 overall prospect and sitting Top 10 feels right. With Roman Anthony, Jac Caglianone and Nick Kurtz all in the big leagues we may find Griffin Top 5 before the seasons end.
Brady House WAS got the call this week and made his big league debut with the Nationals. House’s game is big power (with swing and miss) and a good glove at third base. He has a wide open path to playing time with the Nats and has batted 5th and 6th in his two games played. There’s a lot to like with the Nat’s developing lineup and House is worth investing in here - as long as the cost is reasonable and you are prepared to move on quickly if things don’t click for the 22yo.
The Angels have developed a pattern for pushing their top hitting prospects quickly. Zach Neto then Nolan Schanuel and now Christian Moore. Moore is a power driven middle infielder with solid speed, yet hit tool questions and defensive limitations. Moore will likely need a strong debut to stick around once Yoan Moncado returns from injury. With Luis Rengifo, Yoan Moncado and Moore all active it’s possible the Angels would have Moore return to AAA until closer to the trade deadline. Long term though it’s pretty clear the Angels want Moore at second base.
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