Raleigh, Wood, Cruz and Prospect Watch
June 25, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Raleigh, Wood, Cruz and Prospect Watch
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How good is James Wood WAS? Well, 159 games into his big league career Wood is carrying a career slash of .273/93/31/104/23. His production is on an upswing in 2025 as well. Wood has also increased his average EV to a 98th percentile 94.1mph and his barrel rate to a 98th percentile 19.5%. Add in 96th percentile bat speed and a surprising 69th percentile sprint speed (for a big man!) and you have a 1st rd talent in Fantasy Baseball next year. How high Wood will go is likely to be determined by the rest of 2025. It could end up being in the Top 5 players overall.
Speaking of 2026 Fantasy Baseball drafts it’s possible that Cal Raleigh SEA could move into the back half of the 1st round. Raleigh is putting up an all-time real world season for a catcher and the impact is even greater in Fantasy Baseball. This is due to the production gap between Raleigh and other catcher eligible players. Raleigh is pacing for a .281/116/64/138/18 slash, which has only been accomplished once in MLB’s history. Who did it? Slammin’ Sammy Sosa! In 1998 Sosa delivered .308/134/66/158/18 for the Chicago Cubs. That’s it though. He’s the only one and it’s likely to stay that way. Outside of how improbable it would be for Raleigh to get this done in any situation, the fact that opposing teams are just not going to consistently pitch to him will make it so much harder. Regardless, we are witnessing an all-time great season for a catcher. And accordingly Raleigh will have a huge correlation to winning Fantasy Baseball teams this season!
Recently I caught a segment with Mark DeRosa on MLB Network where he broke down changes Jeremy Pena HOU has made in his stance and approach. Pena has opened his stance and adjusted his hands pre-swing which has lead to significantly more damage being done on contact. He’s pacing for a .326/94/22/80/30 season, while also playing great defense. At 4.0 WAR for the season Pena has already eclipsed his best individual campaign (2022 3.3 WAR). Sure to be an All-Star, Pena (like Raleigh) is rostered on many league leading Fantasy Teams. He’s delivering a huge return for those draft shares that averaged an ADP around pick #165.
Since June 6th Matt McLain CIN is hitting .298 with 3 home runs, 13 runs scored and 8 RBI. During the same period McLain walked 10% of the time while striking out just 21%, good for a 144 wRC+. The lack of recent stolen bases aside it looks like McLain is more or less back on track. We discussed a few weeks back that McLain’s fly ball rate and BABIP suggested he was a tweak away from getting it going. McLain should be an acquisition target in most any league at this point and it’s possible you can catch an owner still valuing McLain off of his early season struggles.
Spencer Steer CIN is another Red that has heated up a bit while still being available in many formats. Since Jun 2nd Steer is .297/7/2/10/3 and has 12 hits in his last 29 plate appearances going into play today. Steer is still striking out a bit much and his walk rate leaves a lot to be desired but the injury driven early season struggles appear to behind him as well.
What’s going on with Oneil Cruz PIT you ask? The answer is nothing new or different. He’s more or less the same player he has been. Which is an incredibly enticing power / speed combo who is just not a good hitter. Cruz continues to strikeout over 30% of the time (32% career) and he simply can’t hit lefties. The Pirates would be better served having Cruz on the strong side of a platoon and Fantasy players will fair better working him in daily lineups versus weekly. At an ADP in the high 30’s Cruz was priced for perfection during draft season. This for a performance he was unlikely to deliver. The counting stats are still meaningful though and Cruz could make for a solid trade acquisition, particularly in a daily league.
Sometimes stats just jump out at you. An example is Tarik Skubal DET having 125 strikeouts to just 13 walks. A 10-1 ratio is just unheard of for a starting pitcher and yet here we are with Skubal who is is actually having an even better season than his 2024 AL Cy Young performance.
Two pitchers with surprisingly similar performances YTD are Cristopher Sanchez PHI and David Peterson NYM. Both have been quite good, but Sanchez came into the season on a number of target lists while Peterson was a very late draft afterthought. At 29yo Peterson is a late bloomer and it’s easy to forget he was a 1st rd pick in 2017.
Cristopher Sanchez / David Peterson
Max Scherzer TOR is returning from the 60 day IL this evening. We’ve all learned to never, ever count Mad Max out but given his age, injuries and his own narrative around his current thumb issue we should expect it to be a bumpy road. Scherzer is a first ballot Hall of Fame player and the main thing here is to enjoy having him back on the mound.
The Chris Sale ATL injury may not be getting the attention it deserves. Sale won the NL Cy Young Award last year and has been fantastic so far in 2025. This injury being to the rib cage though suggests he may be out of action well into August. A return could be timed to help Fantasy Teams chase the championship in Roto or Head to Head at least.
Given the Braves outfield struggles I thought I would check in on Jarred Kelenic ATL, who has been at AAA since his Apr 28 demotion. A quick look at his stats with Gwinnett tells you why he has not been recalled. Over 48 games in AAA Kelenic is hitting just .200 with minimal power, a high K rate, and a shockingly bad 64 wRC+. That’s right, 36% worse than the average AAA hitter. We’ve seen talented former top prospects struggle like this and get it together before. Maybe that will be Kelenic, yet maybe it won’t. Kelenic should be off of our radars except in the very deepest of deep Dynasty Leagues.
Prospect Watch:
Jacob Misiorowski MLW is now 3 games into his big league career and it’s been impressive. Over 16 innings pitched Misiorowski now has 19 K’s, with just 4 hits and 2 runs allowed. There have been 7 walks and we need to keep in mind he hasn’t faced a strong offense yet. There’s been chatter of Misiorowski versus Skenes rest of season, even Fantasy Trade talk. Just to have it said, and despite today’s outing where Misiorowski outdueled Skenes, there is no scenario where the Brewer rookie has the same current value as the former LSU Tiger.
We were treated to another big time pitching debut with Chase Burns CIN being promoted to the Big Leagues after just 13 minor league starts. Burns made stops at High A, AA, and AAA this year. He cruised through each level to make his MLB debut against the vaunted Yankees. Unimpressed Burns went 5 innings, allowing 3 earned while striking out 8. Like Misiorowski before him Chase Burns should be in the Big Leagues to stay. There is a question of workload for both players and we may see that aspect managed as the season continues.
Didier Fuentes ATL is a 50 FV prospect (Fangraphs #82 overall) that made his MLB debut on Jun 20th. Didier is barely 20yo and had just 5 starts at AA and only 1 at AAA before the promotion. It was a stretch assignment, born out of organizational need, and initially expected to be a one game call up. In his debut Didier showed why his fastball is 70 grade, driven by rise that fooled Marlin hitters at the top of the zone. His curveball (tight slider?) played better than expected as well. Despite getting a 2nd start (upcoming) due to team injuries, Didier likely needs further development including adding at least one more effective pitch to his arsenal.
Tommy Hawke CLE leads the known universe in stolen bases this season with 63 bags over his first 63 games. That brings Hawke to 102 stolen bases in the first 156 games of his career. Still at A ball Hawke is likely to bump up to High A soon given his .309 batting average, .453 OBP and 151 wRC+. There’s no power in the profile but Hawke has a knack for getting on base and scoring runs.
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT is the current MILB home run leader with 19 round trippers. Valdez is a 21yo 1B/OF prospect at High A who also hit 22 home runs last season at A ball. Still on few prospect radars Valdez is a hard swinger with hit tool questions and lacking a clear defensive position.
It’s been a minute since we’ve discussed Kevin McGonigle DET. Back at High A from an early season injury McGonigle is now hitting .382 with a .471 OBP and .696 SLG. He’s doing this while walking 20 times and striking out just 17 in 141 plate appearances. McGonigle should get the bump to AA soon and may hit his way into Detroit as early as the 2026 All-Star break. A couple of injuries aside, McGonigle should be a Dynasty Baseball target for pretty much all teams. His hit tool appears elite and there is enough power and speed to create an impact player at the big league level.
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