Witt Jr., Busch, Burns and Prospect Watch
July 8, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Witt Jr., Busch, Burns and Prospect Watch
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Bobby Witt Jr. KC is riding an 11 game hitting streak and carrying a .360/21/5/15/3 line since Jun 15. There’s been narrative that Witt Jr. is having a down year so this is a reminder he just turned 25yo and is the same player you drafted top of the 1st rd in Fantasy Baseball. In fact, Witt Jr. has a career high 93.1 EV this season and continues to light up his Baseball Savant page - including a 100th percentile sprint speed at 30.4. Opposing teams are pitching Witt Jr. carefully and that has likely been part of the early season story. Acquire if you can, just please don’t sell at a discount. This is an ELITE talent and a league winning player.
Michael Busch CHC is another player that has been on a heater. Going into tonights game Busch has a .566 SLG and a 166 wRC+ on the season, both are 1st among all first basemen. He’s averaging a career high 91.4 EV and getting to the barrel 15% of the time. There have been hints of upside with Busch over his first two seasons but this exceeds most expectations. It looks solid, particularly with the decrease in K rate and ISO jump. One thing to keep in mind though is that Busch is still sitting against most LHP due to a pretty extreme split, which has him hitting .319 against RHP and just .191 versus LHP.
Trevor Story BOS is now 32yo and is likely seeing his last run as an everyday shortstop. The bat, however, has woken up over the last few weeks and, at least for the short term, is reminiscent of the numbers Story routinely put up in Colorado from 2016 to 2020. Going back to Jun 7 Story is hitting .327/20/7/27/5 (157 wRC+). This looks more like a hot streak than a fountain of youth moment. Still, it would be a mistake to totally discount it given that Story is hitting the ball much harder than his last three seasons and he still runs quite well (82nd percentile). He’s an interesting acquisition target for contending Fantasy Baseball teams. Just be disciplined when it comes to cost.
Rafael Devers SF is hitting a paltry .240 with a .387 SLG since joining the Giants. He started the season ice cold in Boston and then turned it on so this may just be an adjustment period. It may also turn out that he’s not quite the same hitter for the Giants (particularly at home) as he was for the Red Sox. It would be risky (and possibly difficult) to move off of Devers in redraft at this point. And as tempting as it might feel to buy low that’s probably something to avoid unless the discount is substantial.
Brandon Woodruff MLW made his long awaited return to the Brewers rotation. He last pitched in a big league game on Sep 23, 2023. Surprisingly, Woodruff went 6 innings in his season debut. He looked great striking out 8 and allowing just one run on 2 hits and 0 walks. The Brewers are playing good baseball, just 3.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central so getting Woodruff back is a huge boost. A word of caution is that Woodruff’s velo was down a couple of ticks in his first outing. This may pick up but given that he usually runs 60% four seamer / sinker this could end up being an issue.
Staying on returning Brewers pitchers Robert Gasser is set to begin a rehab assignment. If all goes well Gasser could be an option for the big club in late August or September. It seems unlikely he would return as part of the rotation this season but could very well be part of the starting five next spring. Gasser is command driven and pitched effectively in his 5 2024 big league games pre-injury.
News is out today that Cole Ragans KC has been transferred to the 60 day IL. This pushes a best case return to early August. With the Royals likely out of the race it’s hard to say how much they may look for from Ragans here. Combining the nature of the injury with the added delay this further erodes remaining value for Ragans in redraft leagues. Keeping in mind that a healthy return could be a meaningful factor in Fantasy Baseball stretch runs.
We all love catching lightening in a bottle and that’s particularly true with pitching. What Paul Skenes PIT did last year amped this up significantly and you can see it both with fan bases and Fantasy Baseball players this year. Chase Burns CIN made his big league debut on Jun 24 and his 3 outings have been a pretty spot on example of how bumpy the ride can be. Burns looked un-hittable for most of his first outing, and against the Yankees no less. Then came his second outing, versus the Red Sox, where Burns managed to get just one out while allowing 5 earned and striking out none. His third outing landed somewhere in the middle going 4.2 IP against the Phillies striking out 7 and giving up just 2 hits but also 4 walks. This is pretty much the way when it comes to young pitchers.
Chase Burns 3 MLB starts
Reports have Clarke Schmidt NYY headed for TJS and likely not returning until 2027. He’s pitched well this year and his absence leaves another hole in the New York Yankees rotation. One that we may see filled by Luis Gil NYY after the All-Star break. Gil headed out on a rehab assignment and is hoping to reclaim the form that helped him pitch so well in the first half of 2024. Keep an eye on velocity, control, and endurance in Gil’s rehab starts. This should help us understand what to expect when he returns to the Yankees.
Prospect Watch:
The Tigers made a batch of interesting (and warranted) promotions with Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, and Josue Briceno all moving from High A to AA. Fangraphs has all three as 50FV (Future Value) prospects, with Clark #31 overall, McGonigle #35, and Briceno #57. It’s an impressive group and having each hitter with a high end hit tool is particularly interesting. The Tigers already carry a 14 game lead in the AL Central and having this type of help on the way for 2026/2027 is impressive.
Max Clark was the 3rd overall pick in 2023, coming out of high school. He finished 2024 with a good run at High A and has made across the board improvements in 2025. Clark has a strong plate approach with a speed over power profile - but not without the ability to do some damage. Parker Meadows is likely under team control through 2031 and may end up a trade candidate when Clark is ready to join the big club.
I’ve held Kevin McGonigle in very high regard since evaluating players in the 2023 draft. Really the only hurdle he has faced in pro ball has been staying healthy. McGonigle leaves High A with more walks than strikeouts and a surprising amount of power on display with 28 of his 58 hits being for extra bases. This is Detroit’s second baseman of the future which leans towards Gleyber Torres signing elsewhere this offseason despite his strong 2025 performance.
Josue Briceno is a player I knew very little about prior to last years Arizona Fall League. I had a long look at Briceno in the AFL and like most who saw him I walked away a believer. Briceno has a big powerful build yet shows an unusually advanced willingness to work his at bats and take what the pitcher gives him. It’s refreshing to see and I’m convinced Briceno’s bat will play in the big leagues. This will most likely be at first base even though he is still working behind the plate at catcher fairly often.
The Cardinals promoted JJ Wetherholt to AAA and I’m grateful to have gotten a decent look at him when he came through AA this year. While it’s not a power profile, Wetherholt looks to have a great approach and deliver lots of extra base hits. He’s still mostly playing SS but probably profiles a bit better at 2nd, particularly given Masyn Winn is a plus defender at short. It’s Wetherholt that profiles to be the Cardinals 2B of the future, not Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan (love the player) or Thomas Saggese.
The Seattle Mariners recently promoted Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo to AA. Each has hit the ground running and given a boost to an anemic Arkansas Travelers lineup. In fact, the Travs are 8 and 4 since the duo’s arrival, which ties with Wichita (Twins) for the Texas League North second half lead.
Michael Arroyo looks a tad shorter and more compact than the 5’10” 160 he is listed at. What I have seen so far is limited range with solid hands in the field, most likely a 2B at the big league level. At the plate Arroyo has looked good. The swing isn’t complicated, he’s quick to the ball and packs solid power particularly given his size. For a comparison, Arroyo’s build is similar to that of Cole Young but he is able to impact the ball much more consistently than Young.
Lazaro Montes is a big body player and mostly moves like it. In the field Montes has the arm for RF but the range is a question mark. At the plate he is currently working with an unusual hand tilt on set that brings his bat to perpendicular and contributes to an already long swing - adding a loop element to it. Montes has BIG power, and will likely do a lot of damage on weaker pitching. But without further changes there should be concern that big league pitching will be able to beat him - particularly with heat up top. One at bat in last Sunday’s game stands out as Montes misread a breaking ball on the first pitch, leaving him well out front. He then swung though two straight fastballs, late on each. These were mid-levels fastballs, not even reaching the heat that pretty much every big league bullpen is now working with.
That’s it for today. Check back soon for new content!
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