Starting Pitchers
May 27, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Starting Pitchers
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We are just under 1/3 of the way through the season - which is a good point to take a look at which Starting Pitchers are really getting it done. To do this I filtered all Starting Pitchers as follows:
A minimum of 8 games started
At least 90% of games as a starter
BB’s below 3 per 9 IP
K’s at or above 9 per 9 IP
Quality start’s in at least 50% of outings
Through May 26, 2025
As you might expect, it’s not a long list. There are only 16 starting pitchers that meet the criteria so far. This compares to just 11 in 2024 (we’ll look further at last years list towards the end of this article).
Digging into this years current list a bit more a point was added for being above the group average in each each of FIP, ERA, K/9, BB/9, and K/BB ratio. The idea here is to identify the elite performances year-to-date inside of this already exclusive group. On the chart below a green highlight indicates above the group average and red below the group average. It’s by category mentioned and then the chart itself is stacked based upon cumulative points.
It should be no surprise to anyone to see reigning AL CY Winner Tarik Skubal DET at the top of the list. Not only has he been phenomenal he’s coming off of his best outing of the year, pitching a complete game shutout with 13 K’s (0 BB’s) against the Guardians. Skubal has now avoided issuing a free pass in 6 of his 11 starts. Also, this one outing was good for a whopping 84 points in Fangraphs points leagues!
Meanwhile Zack Wheeler PHI pretty quietly just goes about the business of being elite year in and year out. The Phillies Ace has to lead the conversation of the most accomplished current pitcher without a Cy Young Award. Wheeler has finished 2nd in CY voting twice (2021, 2024) and 6th once (2023). He’s also finished the season with an ERA below 3 in 4 of the last 5 years. Wheeler’s about to be 35yo and this just might be his year to win the award.
The next tier also has just two members with Nate Eovaldi TEX and Hunter Greene CIN delivering 4 points each. Like Wheeler, Eovaldi is in his age 35 season and showing no signs of letting up. What Eovaldi is doing exceptionally well this season is limiting both walks (1.2 per 9) and home runs (.53 per 9) while punching out opposing hitters at his highest rate since 2021. BABIP, xERA, and xFIP all suggest there has been at least some good fortune involved but that doesn’t take much away from his great start to 2025.
Pretty much everyone has been waiting for the full Hunter Greene CIN breakout season to get here. He flirted with it last season, producing a strong 2.75 ERA with over 10 K’s per 9. Unfortunately time missed limited him to 26 starts and a total of 150.1 IP. Greene has missed a couple of May starts already this season but is back on the bump now. He’s issuing less walks than prior years and stranding over 90% of his runners allowed. Greene’s still working a 3 pitch mix but the fastball sits 99.3mph and is holding hitters to a .191 BA while his wipeout slider has a .115 BA against and is generating a 50% whiff rate. The splitter has been helpful against LHB but if you are a righty it’s either the extreme heat or the nasty slider coming. Knowing it’s just 2 (or 3) pitches to deal with hasn’t helped hitters a bit this season.
The mid-tier on this list is also filled with names you might expect in Hunter Brown HOU, Garrett Crochet BOS, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD. While at least a bit of surprise we have Jesus Luzardo PHI and Joe Ryan MIN here as well. Luzardo, in particular, was available quite late in most Fantasy Baseball drafts this year and has delivered significant profit for owners so far.
Hunter Brown’s dominance actually extends back to his Jun 8th start last season. From that point through the end of the 2024 season he delivered a 2.20 ERA with 10 wins and 119 K’s over 114.2 IP. Combining that with 2025 YTD Brown has 16 wins, 190 K’s, and a 2.15 ERA over his last 176.1 IP (29 GS). It’s a Cy Young worthy run and he is at least giving Skubal some competition in 2025.
Garrett Crochet and Yoshinobu Yamamoto need little discussion. Both have been excellent and should continue to perform at a similar level. These are elite Fantasy assets and both should be able to pitch fairly unrestricted the rest of the season (barring injury).
Jesus Luzardo has added 1.2mph to his four seamer since last year and it is helping his other pitches play up. His sweeper carries a 50% whiff rate and works against LHB and RHB while he also has a slider and change against righties. About the only thing that isn’t lit up on Luzardo’s Baseball Savant page is extension and his release point just hasn’t been an issue.
Joe Ryan has plenty of supporters and admittedly I have just steered clear. I’ve not caught his outings often enough to form a strong opinion and have generally felt the arsenal, while deep, was a bit underwhelming versus where he was going in drafts. Clearly things are going well for the Twins starter as he uses a very good fastball 57% of the time. Ryan’s strong command has him with a sub 2 walks per 9 for the 3rd year in a row. His supporters will point to this season as a breakout that was due while I have him as a command driven starting pitcher that will generally sit in the 3.50 ERA range. Which is quite valuable in real life and in Fantasy Baseball circles.
The remaining names on our list include a standout in Paul Skenes PIT, an absolute innings eater with an elevated K rate in Logan Webb SF, a surprise to many in Kris Bubic KC, an almost always solid journeyman in Sonny Gray STL, and then three names pretty much no one would have guessed preseason in Nick Pivetta SD, Mathew Boyd CHC, and Max Meyer MIA.
We’ve discussed Paul Skenes, Logan Webb and Kris Bubic recently so we’ll move past them quickly in our conversation here. Skenes is awesome and stronger in QS leagues versus Wins due to the Pirates issues. And we should all be lucky enough to roster Logan Webb, who’s volume of contribution is usually underrated. The key to Kris Bubic is keeping an eye on his innings. There are indications that he will have an innings cap this season and if so it would shut him down for some period of time. Outside of that Bubic’s performance YTD is not a mirage, it’s supported by his inclusion on this list as well as underlying metrics.
Sonny Gray has been underrated by many for years and he’s carrying an ERA below his norm so far this season. There have been 3 rough outings for Gray this season mixed in with mostly good ones. All in all, a solid pitcher yet not one to chase particularly hard given his age and history of missing time most seasons.
The next three names are the ones we should probably trust the least on this list. Not to say they can’t or won’t be good the rest of the way. It’s more the fact that their underlying metrics, as well as their career bodies of work, suggest caution.
Nick Pivetta has amped up the use of his curveball (for LHB) and cutter (for RHB) while easing back on the sweeper (also for RHB) a bit. As a result the curveball has been a bit more hittable while the four seamer, sweeper and cutter have all elevated this season. The Padres tend to get more out of their pitchers than most and Pivetta appears to be another example.
Mathew Boyd isn’t overpowering anyone but he is pitching effectively. He had 8 starts with Cleveland last year that produced at his current level so that’s 18 starts now that suggest we have a mid 3 to upper 3 ERA pitcher delivering just over 9 K’s per 9, while also keeping his walk rate down. It will be interesting to see how Boyd navigates the ball carrying more during the summer in Chicago. Other than that he’s likely to continue at a somewhat similar pace.
Max Meyer had a brilliant outing back on April 21 against the Reds. This put Meyer on pretty much everyone’s radar. But that game aside, his numbers are more in the ok to solid range. I don’t want to discount a big step forward from the 3rd overall pick in 2020. Instead, choosing to be realistic that this is a young pitcher still learning and growing. The team context isn’t great and neither is the gauntlet he must face in his own division with the Phillies, Mets and Braves. Meyer has an outstanding slider and a developing changeup that are carrying him while both his four seamer and sinker remain all too hittable. I’ve wondered before if Meyer might end up in a high leverage role but it’s clear the Marlins are committing to him as a starter and are being rewarded for that.
As mentioned earlier, let’s take a look at the 2024 list of Starting Pitchers that match the criteria we used for this list.
2024 End of Season
You’ll notice the only two names included on both the 2024 and 2025 lists are Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler. Our reigning NL Cy Young Winner Chris Sale ATL has been solid so far. As has Pablo Lopez MIN and Carlos Rodon NYY. But Jack Flaherty DET, Bailey Ober, and Luis Castillo SEA have all taken a bigger step back. And Logan Gilbert SEA, Shota Imanaga CHC, and Reynaldo Lopez ATL are all on the IL with extended absences due to injury. It’s a great reminder of how difficult it is to be excellent year in and year out as a Starting Pitcher in the big leagues.
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