Bregman, Walker or Vinnie, and Prospect Watch
May 23, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Bregman, Walker or Vinnie, and Prospect Watch
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Stats referenced are through games played May 22, 2025.
Watching the Orioles / Red Sox game while writing we just had Alex Bregman BOS come out of the game with a left leg injury sustained rounding 1st base on a line drive off the Green Monster. Bregman’s resurgence has been a revelation for the Red Sox as he sat .297/32/11/35/1 coming into the game today. That’s good for a 158 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR through 50 games. Bregman has paid big dividends against his Fantasy draft position this year and any sustained down time would be a blow to owners. There’s depth at 3rd base but it tends to thin quickly. It’s also going to be interesting to see if Rafael Devers is asked to pick his glove back up and fill in at 3rd. My guess is that if Bregs hits the IL it’s more likely Marcelo Mayer gets the call then Devers taking the field. However, Mayer is not on the 40 man roster so this would require a corresponding move.
What’s going on with Christian Walker HOU and Vinnie Pasquantino KC? Both have underperformed expectations and have ended up on the cutting block in shallower Fantasy leagues. Should we look to add either? For Walker he is still hitting the ball hard (90.8 EV) and catching barrel’s (12.3%) but the ground ball rate has crept up and his ISO (.134) is 74 points down from his career average. Walker hasn’t hit RHP well at all and has surprisingly managed just 2 hits in 27 plate appearances against LHP. The thing is, Walker’s struggles are actually getting worse as he is hitting just .114 since May 12 with a K rate over 30%. Looking at Baseball Savant Walker’s bat speed is still quite good, but the plate approach has declined noticeably from 2024. We should expect Walker to get reasonably back on track but this doesn’t feel like a priority add if available in your league.
Switching over to Big Vinnie there’s less variance in his profile compared to what we saw with Walker. One thing that stands out is Pasquantino has seen his walk rate decline each year of his career while his K rate has increased each year. He’s still walking 6% of the time and striking out less than 20%, so on the surface it looks ok while the trend is problematic. It’s reasonable to suspect this may be a result of chasing power and that may be showing in a pretty significant increase in bat speed year to year. Pasquantino is also hitting .298 in May with 4 home runs and 11 RBI. While Walker looks like a pass, Vinnie should be an add if you have a need at 1B, U or bench.
Maikel Garcia KC has delivered high EV’s since his 2022 debut but they had come with too many ground balls. So far in 2025 Garcia is hitting the ball harder than ever (92 EV) while also significantly reducing his ground ball rate to a more manageable 43.5%. As a result he has seen a big jump in BABIP leading to a much improved .315 BA. Garcia’s ISO has also increased, now at .169 and this is an area that has improved each year since his debut. Sitting on a slash of .315/19/5/22/10 is valuable enough and it gets better with multi-position eligibility (games played at 3B, 2B, SS and OF so far in ’25). We liked Garcia as a late target in draft season and at just 25yo he has become a key cog in the Royals lineup.
Chandler Simpson TAM was the speed guy getting attention in recent weeks but it’s still Victor Scott II STL that we should target for this kind of profile. Scott is sitting .275/25/2/18/13 on the year and has a hit in 13 of his last 18 games. Something to keep an eye on is that Scott has just 3 steals in May despite his 100th percentile speed. The Cardinals aren’t running a lot, sitting 22nd in MLB with 31 steals as a team. If you remember the Cardinals from the 1980’s this is quite a departure. Despite the current team dynamic, Scott is a solid target to acquire if you are in a category league and need steals.
Taylor Ward LAA has been making a lot of noise lately including a couple of grand slams. He’s sitting on what is probably the quietest 14 home runs in baseball, also with 28 RS and 34 RBI. Since May 6 Ward has a .318 BA with 8 home runs and 24 RBI (across just 16 games). It’s a hot streak no doubt, but the Angels have a surprisingly solid offense (3rd in HR/MLB) and Ward is hitting in the heart of the lineup most nights. A sub-note is that if anything, Ward has been a bit unlucky this season as his .232 BABIP sits well below his .296 career average.
Geraldo Perdomo ARI signed a 4 year / $45m extension during the offseason. It seemed a bit surprising at the time based upon both his light offensive profile and the fact that the DBacks had top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready to go. I recall being impressed with Perdomo during his time in the 2019 Arizona Fall League. And subsequently feeling like he may not impact the ball enough to be an everyday big league starter. Perdomo has since taken his fairly elite plate approach and combined it with harder contact and an ability to find the sweet spot to now be a meaningful offensive player. In fact, since May 1 Perdomo is sitting 13th in MLB with a 180 wRC+ carrying a slash of .369/10/2/13/4 during that time. This pushes Perdomo into an interesting Fantasy Baseball asset yet not one established enough to buy high on.
Geraldo Perdomo / Baseball Savant 2025
Digging through team stats I noticed we have four teams (NYY, LAD, ARI, CHC) with an OPS of .782 or higher. Last year the highest team OPS was .781 by the Dodgers and we haven’t even hit the summer months this season. It’s something to keep in mind when setting your pitchers or looking at streaming a starter. I think we have all grown pretty wary of pitching against the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cubs and now should keep in mind that the DBacks are doing similar damage.
Prospect Watch:
Word popped today that Denzel Clarke ATH is getting the call. Colby Thomas likely offers more impact at the plate but he is not yet on the 40 man roster. Clarke offers excellent defense and is able to play all OF positions. He carries a power / speed profile with an iffy hit tool. I’ve had extended looks at Clarke in AA and during his time in the Arizona Fall League. This an athletic player that probably should be on prospect radars more than he is. There’s likely a wide range of outcomes on the table for Clarke and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets an extended look here. JJ Bleday has struggled at the plate and has very little range (bottom 2%) in the OF. And it’s likely that Bleday is the most vulnerable to lose significant playing time if Clarke can provide even league average offense.
The Rays don’t currently have a big league need at SP. When they do (and they will) the next guy up should be Joe Boyle, who has already debuted this year and continues to pitch well at AAA. The name to remember behind Boyle is Ian Seymour, a LHP drafted in the 2020 2nd rd. Seymour is already on the 40 man roster and so far the Rays have avoided working him from the pen at AAA. He’s riding a 2.40 ERA with an almost 6 to 1 K/BB rate. Seymour’s not overpowering yet has a deep arsenal with solid command. Across 5 minor league seasons Seymour has a 2.48 ERA striking out 378 hitters across 304 IP while delivering an enviable 1.012 WHIP. If you are in a dynasty format look to acquire Seymour, otherwise add him to your scout team.
Staying on pitching prospects, the MILB leader in K’s is Trey Yesavage TOR. Just 21yo Yesavage was drafted in the 1st rd last year and has pitched at both A and High A so far this season. Across 37 IP Yesavage has a whopping 65 K’s while carrying a 2.65 ERA. Command development has been the question mark and so far Yesavage has kept his walk rate under 3 per 9 in 2025. Still likely 2 years away from a big league debut Yesavage gives the Blue Jays (and Fantasy owners) a big arm to look forward to.
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