Bubic, Skenes, Braves and Prospect Watch
May 20, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Bubic, Skenes, Braves and Prospect Watch
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Stats referenced are through games played May 19, 2025.
A few Fantasy Baseball chats I follow have included recent discussions on what the trade value is for SP Kris Bubic KC. It’s a sell high consideration given that he was a very late round pick (or undrafted) in most leagues and is now tied for 6th (Wheeler, Skenes) in SP WAR at 1.8. Bubic has been amazing and the thing is it’s not a fluke. His Savant page lights up in the right places and he has been particularly effective for a pitcher that only sits 92.4mph with his four seamer. Bubic has four pitches that account for 95% of his work and EACH has a whiff rate over 28%. He’s been equally effective against RH and LH batters as well as at home and on the road. Additionally, Bubic has yet to give up a run the 1st time through the order while having a 2.66 ERA the 2nd time through and a 1.76 ERA the 3rd time through. It’s been an amazing start to the season and has included 7 quality starts in his 10 outings.
So back to the question of what Bubic could return in a trade. The answer in redraft is going to be not what he is worth more often than not. And the reason is two fold. One is lingering skepticism that this is real and the other is the probability he caps out between 125 and 140 innings this season due to limitations related to his prior injury. With 61.1 IP so far (across 10 starts) that likely leaves only another 12-14 starts for Bubic over the rest of 2025. He doesn’t reach free agency until 2027 so it’s hard to see the Royals pressing this too far. And let’s not forget that KC is in the playoff hunt and would want Bubic available for the stretch run and any post-season series.
In redraft this leaves two choices for how to handle Bubic. It basically boils down to hold and enjoy the ride and then supplement when he is unavailable. Or you can try to time trading Bubic to get the most out of him along with generating a solid return in a deal.
Shohei Ohtani LAD is pacing for another incredible slash of .312/163/54/99/32. There’s just not enough accolades for what he is doing. In pre-season we talked about Ohtani likely running less due in part to the shoulder injury. And he is, relative to his 59 bags in 2024. But having 10 already this year suggests he’s willing to keep swiping bases at a pretty high rate. And the rest of the profile remains Fantasy magic, delivering big returns even from the Utility slot.
The Atlanta Braves have two big pieces returning this week. Spencer Strider has been activated and will start tonight against the Nationals. We are probably looking at shorter starts in the beginning, maybe 70-80 pitches at first. This is an impact player if healthy, so kudos to those that have stashed him. Do keep in mind that there will likely be some rust and that his velo was down in his one outing so far this season.
And then this weekend looks to be the season debut for Ronald Acuna Jr. He’s made up with his manager and appears to be ready to go as he is 4 for 9 in rehab games with 2 home runs and 6 walks. The lift Acuna Jr. and Strider could bring to Fantasy teams is probably only eclipsed by how badly the Braves need both to return healthy.
There’s been a decent amount of chatter regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates organization in general, but specifically that the franchise isn’t getting the most out of their time with Paul Skenes. It’s a fair critique, particularly given the announcement that Jared Jones is now lined up for TJS. It seemed inevitable that Jones was headed in this direction but the couple of months delaying surgery now puts Jones on a course to likely miss 2 full seasons - returning in 2027.
There’s also another factor in this conversation, which is the enviable strength of the Pirates prospect depth at SP. Leading the way is Bubba Chandler who has nothing left to prove in the minors and is really just burning valuable innings at AAA. Last year Skenes got the call after 7 starts and 27.1 dominant IP at AAA. Chandler already has 9 starts and 37.1 IP at AAA this year plus 7 starts and 39.1 IP there last season. He’s striking out 13.5 hitters per 9 and has a 2.17 ERA. In other words, dominant. Fangraphs has Chandler as a 55 FV prospect ranked #1 in the Pirates system and #19 overall. This lines up in most rankers as well.
I bring all of this up here to say that if you can reasonably get your hands on Bubba Chandler you should. A call up in the next few weeks feels inevitable, particularly given that Carmen Mlodzinski still looks best suited for a bullpen role. Chandler could provide impact right away and should be able to log 100 - 125 big league innings this year.
The other reason to discuss the Pirates organization is that it’s pretty clear there is not a commitment to winning atm. The offense is in shambles and they continue to give at bats to players like Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, and now Nick Solak. So, that begs the question should we sell Paul Skenes if we are holding in Fantasy? The answer is that it’s worth exploring, particularly if you are in a league that uses Wins as a category. It’s more tempting to consider this in redraft in dynasty, just given the long term value of an ace like Skenes. The situation though calls for at least evaluating what a return would look like.
Staying on organizational questions for a moment let’s look at the Cincinnati Reds and their glut of OF’s. In the mix we have TJ Friedl, Austin Hays, Gavin Lux, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, Reese Hinds and even Jacob Hurtubise. And that doesn’t include Spencer Steer, Connor Joe, Santiago Espinal, Blake Dunn or Tyler Callihan who have seen time in the OF as well.
So, who from the Reds OF collection should we roster for fantasy? In weekly lineups it’s TJ Friedl and probably Austin Hays (when healthy). In daily lineups Gavin Lux and his position flex are interesting. Will Benson has been heavily added in many leagues after his hot week, reminiscent of Reese Hinds last year. You could try the hot hand in Benson just don’t be surprised if he’s platooning or when that career 35% K rate brings him back to AAA.
Prospect Watch:
Mathew Lugo LAA made his big league debut on May 9 and has 6 XBH’s in his first 30 AB’s. It’s splashy and not without some underlying substance - just know the league will catch up to him and then we will see if he can adjust. So far Lugo is striking out 40% of the time with 0 walks. I know, it’s literally just 10 games. Lugo is a 2019 2nd rd pick and was very good at High A in 2022 and then again at AA in 2024. Given the lack of real depth in the Angels OF and the potential for lost time with Mike Trout and Jorge Soler it’s possible that Lugo carves out consistent playing time. This leaves him worth a low cost flyer in deeper leagues.
We’ve talked about Jac Caglianone KC quite a few times already. This is just an update that his AA tour unfortunately won’t make it to North Little Rock to face the Arkansas Travelers. They were scheduled for 6 games at Dickey-Stephens Park in early June and I had really hoped to get an extended look at Caglianone during the series. Instead, and rightfully so, Caglianone has been promoted to AAA and the possibility of him getting the big league call this year is looking likely. His AA slash of .322/32/9/43/2 in just 38 games is really impressive. Particularly combined with a 21% K and 11% walk rates. The Royals offense needs help and a sharp start at AAA could have Caglianone in Kansas City by July.
Reports have Christian Moore LAA getting bumped up to AAA. Other than big league need and an improving walk rate it’s hard to see that Moore has done enough at AA. The Angels move fast (out of need usually) and aren’t afraid to develop at the big league level so it will be curious to see how this plays out.
Tommy Hawke CLE is a name that you might not be familiar with. He’s a 2023 6th rd pick out of Wake Forest and currently leads all affiliated minor leagues in runs scored (41) and stolen bases (also 41). There’s no power in the profile but what he does, he does very well. And that’s to get on base (.460 OBP), create havoc, and score runs. Hawke is a 22yo OF that likely gets bumped up to High A soon. So if you are a Dynasty player and looking for the next Chandler Simpson type this might be your guy.
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