Naylor Outrunning Carroll, Olson and Prospect Watch
May 16, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Naylor Outrunning Carroll, Olson and Prospect Watch
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Stats referenced are through games played May 15, 2025.
Checking box scores this week I spotted Josh Naylor ARI had nabbed his 7th bag, which is surprising because…well, you know why. We are talking 5th percentile speed here, combined with not being known as a particularly good baserunner. Despite this Naylor now has 32 career steals (9x caught). What has me bringing it up is that Corbin Carroll ARI (96th percentile sprint speed) has just 6 steals (3x caught) so far in 2025. Conversely, Carroll has 14 home runs so far against just 5 for Naylor. The steals variance is a baseball oddity that should straighten itself out over the course of the season, but it sure looks odd right now! Regardless though, both Naylor and Carroll are delivering strong Fantasy seasons for owners. The CBS ranker has Carroll currently 4th overall and Naylor 44th.
Matt Olson ATL sits 15th in wRC+ for First Basemen (10th in ’24, 3rd in ’23). A .214/23/7/21/0 slash isn’t what the Braves or Fantasy owners were expecting at this point of the season. So, what’s going on? The answer is it’s a mixed bag. On one hand Olson has seen his bat speed decline for the last 3 years (73.5, 73.8, 74.9). He’s 31yo, so this is probably age related - yet for context he is still in the 74th percentile. He’s also pounding balls into the ground at a 42% clip compared to a career average of 37%. This is coming at the expense of line drives and also those fly balls he often drove out.
On the other hand though, Olson has a career best EV at 94.3 (increase in grounders though) and barrel rate at 16.4%. He’s drawing walks at a 15% clip and striking out in line with his career average at 23%. Another item to note is Olson’s BABIP is 32 points below his career average and just balancing that out would put his BA back in line with his career numbers. So, we have a hitter that has a bit slower bat, who is pounding balls into the ground and is having some bad luck. The takeaway? It’s likely a buy low opportunity on a hitter that should bounce back but we need to be disciplined if dealing for him. The Olson of 2023 looks like the career year version and 2025 Olson is likely to be quite similar to his 2024 production at seasons end. This would be the .247/78/29/98/0 range.
Jacob Wilson’s ATH ROY campaign is in full swing and we’ve discussed him here quite a few times. This is a player that seems to know exactly who he is and how to get the most out of his strengths. What Wilson does amazingly well is squaring the ball up (99th percentile) without swinging and missing (also 99th %) or striking out (100th %). He can get to enough power on the pull side to have popped 5 home runs so far and in the meantime just sprays everything else around the field. Wilson’s current slash projects to something in the neighborhood of .347/95/17/90/7. Pure Fantasy gold, particularly given how late he was available in most drafts (350 ADP range NFBC).
Jacob Wilson’s 2025 Spray Chart
If you are in a daily league Gavin Sheets SD should be on your radar. Sheets is a strong side platoon guy that holds 1B and OF eligibility in most leagues. Against RHP he is sitting .308/5/5/21/0 and it’s driven by a lot of hard contact (career best 92.4 EV). To be clear, Sheets is a complimentary depth piece - not a starter. If you are in a daily league and have the bench room this is a guy you can plug in against favorable RH matchups.
Is Andrew Abbott CIN and his 2.10 ERA, with an 11 K/9, for real? The answer is somewhere between maybe and sort of. Through 6 outings Abbott has given up more than 1 earned run just once, and that was in Colorado where he gave up 4 of his 7 earned on the season. While Abbott doesn’t throw hard (FB sits under 92mph), he has minimized hard contact and is generating at least a 22% whiff rate with each of his four pitches. The changeup, with arm side movement, has been used exclusively against RHB while limiting them to a .130 BA. The fastball has been used 50% of the time and is surprisingly effective so far, particularly given the lower velocity.
Abbott had a strong run like this in his debut 2023 season delivering a 2.38 1st half ERA before struggling to a 4.79 ERA in the 2nd half. So there is room for caution knowing that. Yet this is a pitcher that may be figuring some things out as well. Keep in mind that Abbott struck out 327 over 215 college innings at Virginia and then added 279 K’s across just 195 minor league innings once pro. Another thing to point out is that Abbott has surprisingly been even better at home in the big leagues, delivering a 3.32 ERA there versus 3.88 on the road. Great American Ballpark can be a scary place to start a pitcher but Abbott may be an exception to that. Hold your shares and see how this plays out. If you need pitching depth and can grab Abbott for a reasonable cost he’s worth the look.
I had an extended view of Drake Baldwin ATL in the Arizona Fall League last year. As a result we’ve discussed him quite a few times here and I’ve pounded the drum to acquire if you are able. Baldwin was a 3rd rd pick for the Braves coming out of Missouri State in 2022. He’s been a hit first catching prospect that has improved defensively. In college Baldwin carried a .317 BA and then hit .272 in the minors. So while we aren’t looking at a .360 hitter (current average) Baldwin will be a high average and high OBP player. He’ll keep the K’s down (currently 16%) and has 20+ home run upside. Sean Murphy’s early season injury may have opened the door for Baldwin but now it’s pretty clear the rookie is the stronger option for the Braves on offense. We should see Baldwin’s playing time continue to tick up. And with Murphy signed through 2028 Baldwin likely will gain additional playing time when Marcell Ozuna departs after this season. That will open DH up for the Braves to rotate Baldwin and others through. Baldwin is particularly strong as a Dynasty Baseball asset.
Prospect Watch:
Dalton Rushing LAD made his debut last night going 2 for 4 with a walk and 3 runs scored. Will Smith is under contract through 2033 so this is an incredible luxury for the Dodgers. Given that Rushing has hit at every level and has nothing left to prove in the minors this move might stick. Making the Dodgers top tier offense even better. For redraft Fantasy the consistency of playing time may be an issue but it’s likely the Dodgers work him in often if he stays up. For Dynasty leagues Rushing is an excellent asset to target.
You would think a player that started the season at A ball would have little to no chance to make the big leagues this year. And while that is most likely the case, particularly given the Chicago White Sox situation, it’s obvious that Braden Montgomery was given too easy of an assignment to start 2025. A significant pre-draft injury had Montgomery “fall” to the 12th overall pick last year. And not only was he on the sideline for his draft season but also found himself traded from the Red Sox to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet deal. Montgomery is a powerful, switch hitting outfielder with a great looking swing. So far this year he has a .331 average with 7 home runs and 7 steals across A and High A. Montgomery’s draft profile included concerns regarding the quality of his hit tool as well as his ability to keep the K’s down. So far he is striking out just 20.5% of the time and walking 12.3%. We really need to see Montgomery at AA to get a better understanding of how this will play out as he is clearly too advanced for the lower levels. Another promotion should be coming relatively soon and this is a must watch for Dynasty formats.
Carson Whisenhunt SF may force the Giants hand soon enough. So far in May the big lefty has thrown 21 innings over 3 starts. In this time he has given up just 4 earned runs (oddly, all on solo homers), while striking out 23 against just 1 walk. The Giants have a lot of pitching depth with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks, Landon Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison and Whisenhunt. Hicks is sitting on a 6.55 ERA (peripherals look better though), Roupp only threw 76 innings last year, and Birdsong is currently working from the pen. Harrison is also serving as a reliever atm. So even though Harrison is likely higher on the depth chart it could be Whisenhunt that gets the call when a starter is needed. No need for Fantasy action at the moment, just adding a name to your list of potential call-ups to keep an eye on.
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