Simpson, McLain, May Leaders and Prospect Watch
May 13, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Simpson, McLain, May Leaders and Prospect Watch
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Stats referenced are through games played May 12, 2025.
We are now 20 games into the big league career of Chandler Simpson TAM. So far Simpson has performed pretty close to what should have been expected of him, yet well below the hype that accompanied his promotion. Simpson hit an impressive .324 across 250 minor league games. During this time he walked more than he struck out, he scored 196 runs and he stole a whopping 214 bases. Simpson also hit just 1 home run and slugged .371 (below his .389 OBP) during his time in the minors. This has translated to a .260/10/0/5/7 slash for Simpson over his first 20 big league games. That projects to .260/80/0/40/56 for a full season. A fun player yet one that remains very difficult to roster and build around in Fantasy Baseball. This is particularly the case if you are in a weekly league versus a daily where you could choose to spot start Simpson based upon opportunity and team needs.
Despite batting 2nd in most of his games played this season the Reds have shifted Matt McLain to hitting 8th today. It’s probably the right call to take some pressure off of McLain given his .165 BA and inconsistencies at the plate. The thing is, McLain’s season has not been as bad as it looks. He has a BABIP 130 point below his career average, he’s walking 14% of the time, playing great defense, and continues to be a threat on the bases. Additionally, McLain’s EV is quite good at 90.6 and he is getting to the barrel almost 12% of the time. What can I tell you - we should still be in and buying low on McLain where possible.
Diving into May stats for hitters you won’t be surprised to see Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or Manny Machado at or near the top of wRC+. But how about Jake Meyers HOU who has a .412 BA with 2 HR, 8 RS, and 9 RBI while striking out less than 5% of the time? Or a Dansby Swanson CHC surge where he is hitting .395 with 4 HR, 10 RS, and 8 RBI? And then there is Trey Sweeney DET possibly figuring things out with a .425 BA, 3 HR, 10 RS, and 10 RBI.
wRC+ Leaders among qualified hitters May 1-12
It’s a small sample size, just 9 to 11 games played yet for Fantasy Baseball catching a hot hand early can be huge. Just looking at home runs for May we have Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Wilyer Abreu (?!?) all tied with 5 each. For steals it’s Jose Ramirez and Maikel Garcia at 6 each with Xavier Edwards, Bobby Witt Jr., and the previously discussed Matt McLain at 5 a piece.
Additionally, back from the scrap heap Carlos Santana CLE has 2 HR, 8 RS, and 12 RBI in May while sitting on very few Fantasy rosters. And Gleyber Torres DET is hitting .371 for the month while walking 12% of the time and striking out just 7%. Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh SEA is campaigning for MVP votes with a 212 wRC+ in May driven by 3 home runs and an MLB leading 23% walk rate.
Who’s struggling to make contact in May? The leaderboard in K% has some pretty big names on it including Trevor Story (38%), Lawrence Butler (35%), Christian Yelich (35%), Oneil Cruz (35%), Willy Adames (35%) and Elly De La Cruz (also 35%). Sitting on top of the list is Kyren Paris at 46% so it’s pretty clear the league has caught up to him as well as Kameron Misner at 45%.
Prospect Watch:
Logan Henderson MLW is on his way back to the big leagues for a spot start tomorrow. Henderson was excellent in his lone big league start this year (back on April 20th). In that outing he went 6 IP, striking out 9, while giving up just one earned run on 3 hits and a walk. Since his return to AAA Henderson has shoved for 16 innings across 3 starts. During that time he has given up just 9 hits, 1 BB, and allowed only 3 runs while striking out 16. It would not be a surprise for Henderson to stick in the rotation this time given Tobias Myers demotion, Quinn Priester’s struggles, and health concerns with Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale.
You have probably picked up on the fact that Jac Caglianone KC is tearing the cover off the ball at AA. And he is, through 33 games Cags has a .320/26/9/37/1 slash. This combined with an 11% walk rate and 23% K rate suggest he’s probably ready for the next challenge. And that could come at the big league level sooner than you might expect for the 6th overall pick last year. Caglianone has gotten some reps in right field recently and the Royals not only need help on offense (only 5 teams have scored less runs) but their OF production has been abysmal. If you have a place to stash Caglianone in redraft now might be the time.
The Boston Red Sox have a couple of top prospects ready or near ready to go in Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony. Mayer is sitting .269/22/7/35/1 at AAA while seeing time at SS, 3B, and 2B. While Anthony has a .302/25/5/17/3 slash also at AAA. The real question is where would either fit into the Red Sox lineup given the current roster dynamics. The infield is set outside of 1B with Alex Bregman, Trevor Story and Kristan Campbell. And with Wilyer Abreu hitting another level in RF and Jarren Duran in LF, the only possibility in the OF for Anthony appears to be CF where Ceddanne Rafaela not only plays exceptional defense but has shown improvements on offense as well. The Red Sox are in an enviable position sitting in 2nd place in the AL East while also having this type of firepower on the way.
Reports have Quinn Mathews STL set to make a rehab start in the Florida Complex League this week. Mathews zoomed through three levels last year, striking out 202 hitters in just 143.1 IP. A late redraft target in Fantasy leagues Mathews went down with what has been described as shoulder soreness after his Apr 11 outing. Mathews is a 55 FV prospect ranked #15 overall at Fangraphs. A healthy return should set him up for his big league debut by mid-season. Watch for Mathew’s performance as he works his way back and take action accordingly in your leagues.
The Springfield Cardinals came through Arkansas last week as they had a 6 game series with the Travelers. This gave me an opportunity to catch my first in-person look at JJ Wetherholt STL. While he had a quiet series the confident, patient approach at the plate was on display. The swing is good and there should be more power coming. Wetherholt wasn’t really tested at SS during the series and I do wonder if he ends up moving over to 2B at some point.
Chase Davis STL closed last season with an 8 game stretch at Springfield and opened 2025 back in AA. So far this season Davis is taking a lot of walks and also striking out a bit too much. He had some solid at bats during the Travelers series but offered very little productivity. And being a bit objective, his max effort swing was on display more often than needed. Davis is very strong, explosive in the box and the ball would jump off his bat even with a more controlled swing. Given his slow start to 2025 it will be interesting to see how the 21st overall pick in 2023 adjusts in-season.
A player completely off of most radars that grabbed my attention in the series is Ixan Henderson STL. The Travelers (Mariners AA) are a weak hitting squad in a notoriously pitcher friendly ballpark so Henderson’s outing has to be taken in context. He looked good, in control if not overpowering, during his 6 innings of shutout baseball in which he gave up just 3 hits, no walks, and struck out 8. For the season, Henderson is now sitting on an impressive 2.13 ERA over 5 starts and is carrying an almost 6 to 1 K/BB ratio.
Henderson is a 2023 8th rd pick out of Fresno State and has advanced through the minors with little fanfare. Despite the lack of pedigree Henderson now has a 2.23 career ERA with 142 K’s over 133 IP. He has also given up just 5 home runs in his pro career. At 6’2” 200+ lbs Henderson has the frame to remain a starter and it wouldn’t surprise me if the lefty found his way into the St. Louis Cardinals rotation at some point in the next couple of seasons.
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