Fantasy Baseball Rundown May 6

May 6, 2025

Author: 3-1Count.com

Fantasy Baseball Rundown May 6

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Stats referenced are through games played May 5, 2025.

We are down to just two players carrying an OPS over 1.000. Aaron Judge NYY of course, yet the other is not Shohei Ohtani (close at .984) but rather Pete Alonso who has put the contract situation behind him and is just raking. Going down the list, there are 17 qualified hitters with an OPS over .900. This includes some surprising names in Jonathan Aranda TB (.975), George Springer TOR (.927), Wilyer Abreu BOS (.917), Ben Rice NYY (.915), and Kyle Stowers MIA (.902).

If you are ever looking for a hot hand to pick up check out OPS for the previous two weeks. It’s interesting, for example surprising players over 1.000 OPS for the last two weeks include Andy Pages LAD (1.227), Jordan Beck COL (1.116), JP Crawford SEA (1.077), Maikel Garcia KC (1.056), Dansby Swanson CHC (1.040), Miguel Vargas CWS (1.017), and Ryan Jeffers MIN (1.009).

Moving on to four pitchers that stood out for different reasons over the last few days:

Reese Olson DET was on our heavy target list during draft season. An injury in 2024 clouded what was a quiet breakout season for the former 2018 18th rd pick. Olson started 2025 allowing 10 earned in his first 15 innings pitched. Giving up 4 runs in both his 1st and 3rd game of the season. Each of those games were on the road, which includes his season debut against the Dodgers. Since then Olson has allowed just 3 earned in 23.2 IP, good for a 1.14 ERA with over 10 K/9.

Looking at 2025 splits Olson has a 0.98 home ERA against 4.87 on the road. Even thought this may look like a start at home situation it’s not. In 2024 Olson had a 3.54 home ERA against 3.51 on the road. And we should expect him to finish 2025 with solid road numbers as well.

Digging in a bit deeper Olson has given up just one home run on the season and has a very nice .364 XSLG. He’s doing this with 5 pitches, including 3 of which carry a whiff rate over 45%. Given how effective his slider and changeup are there is reason to believe Olson has even another gear to reach. He’s throwing his sinker much more (30%+) this season (reducing his 4 seam use) and neither it or his 4 seamer have been effective. It’s a set up pitch and if he can find improvement with the fastball everything else should play up further. All of this is to say that Olson can still be had somewhat affordably in Fantasy Baseball but that window may be closing. Look to acquire where you can.

It was great to see Cristopher Sanchez PHI not only grab his next start after his injury but also pitch effectively. I’ve read so many reports on Sanchez’s injury / non-injury and still do not know whether it was a forearm issue or something else. Given that there was no imaging done it sure seems whatever happened was blown out of proportion. The unknown though, it adds an element of risk. If you have him you hold him and if you don’t this needs to play out further before considering acquisition.

Gunnar Hoglund ATH made his debut against the Marlins on Fri night. It really couldn’t have gone better as he went 6 IP, giving up 6 hits, no walks, striking out 7 and allowing just 1 run. And before you dismiss this to facing the Marlins, keep in mind Miami has more runs scored than 14 other teams.

Hoglund got it done with a 5 pitch mix that leaned heavily on a fastball (44%) that generated 6 whiffs and another 10 called strikes. I watched the game and Hoglund just peppered the zone, comfortably working quadrants. He’s listed at 6’4 220lbs and that description is light. Hoglund has a big presence on the mound and a strong lower body that allows his delivery to work fairly effortlessly. His mechanics also offer a bit of deception as he closes his front shoulder on windup, creating a bit of hesitation in the process. We’ll see Hoglund again tomorrow as he’s slated to take the mound against the Mariners in Sacremento. As it stands, Hoglund may work his way into the Athletics rotation for an extended period with a couple more solid starts. Osvaldo Bido is not pitching well and JT Ginn is on the IL with an elbow issue. This leaves the rotation in question behind Luis Severino, JP Sears, and Jeffry Springs.

Andrew Heaney PIT blazed out of the gate with 4 of his first 5 games being excellent. Then he ran into the Cubs and Padres over his last two starts and gave up a combined 8 earned. What’s the takeaway? Heaney is pitching better with the Pirates than he did elsewhere in recent years. Last season Heaney basically had 3 pitches, this year he is working 6 deep in his arsenal. Velo is down though and he is enjoying a BABIP 50 points below his career average. So, for now, Heaney is a spot starter in Fantasy. Do not run him out there against high powered offenses!

And speaking of teams to just avoid - when it comes to the Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees (at least at home) do not start any pitchers against them short of an ACE. These three teams are crushing Fantasy Baseball owners dreams on a nightly basis. The call may change as the season plays out, but right now the risk is too great unless you have thrown the towel in on ERA and WHIP.

I’m watching more Athletics games this year, the team is just a fun group and I’ve ended up with a lot of player shares so there is a vested interest. One player that is becoming a surprising favorite for me is Jacob Wilson. He gets in the box with that open stance and all the hand / bat movement and just gets hits. We are talking 3rd in MLB in hits with 46, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge.

Wilson’s current slash projects to a ROY winning .341/87/13/92/5. Amazingly Wilson has struck out just 4.3% of the time (6 in 141 PA) so far. Perspective is that Luis Arraez has a 6.6% career K rate and the great Tony Gwynn finished his HOF career at 4.2%. Wilson is also 98th percentile in xBA, 99th in squared-up %, 99th in whiff %, and (of course) 100th percentile in K %. It’s an unusual set of skills and we should be believers in what he is doing.

My least favorite part of Fantasy Baseball has long been chasing saves in straight saves leagues. It’s often an exercise in futility yet usually necessary to win - certainly if you are shooting for overall placement in formats like the NFBC. Typifying this is the situation with the Yankees right now. Devin Williams was a top 50 draft pick in many leagues and more often than not was the 3rd closer taken, behind just Emmanuel Clase (currently broken) and Mason Miller (just gave up 5 earned in one outing). For your investment in Williams you now have a 10.03 ERA with only 4 saves and a 7+ BB/9 in just under 12 IP. If you were proactive and able to you grabbed Luke Weaver at some point to handcuff Williams. So, of course, now in the closer role Weaver comes in last night and gives up 2 hits and a BB to the 4 batters he faced while blowing the save and taking the loss. We all know the pain of closer collapses and this year feels worse than normal yet it may just be more of the same. It all leaves me grateful for the Saves + Holds leagues out there, it makes much more sense or at least it’s less painful!

A couple of new injuries landed over the last few days. Teoscar Hernandez LAD is getting imaging on his hamstring and it sounds like this may be an extended absence. We just discussed how good of a season Teo is having, so this will be a blow to the Dodgers and Fantasy owners. Tommy Edman is still on the IL himself so it will be interesting to see how playing time sorts out. Andy Pages locks in to a FT role as should Michael Conforto - but Conforto is hitting just .146 with a 31% K rate. It would be surprising to see Mookie Betts shift off of SS yet that is also an option that may be considered. For Fantasy it would be fun to have Betts go into 2026 qualified at SS and OF.

Shota Imanaga CHC also hit the IL with a hamstring issue. It’s listed as mild and expectations are for Imanaga to be out at least several weeks. In the meantime this cements the surprising Colin Rea CHC into the rotation TFN. He’s worth paying attention to with a 1.72 ERA and 4 to 1 K/BB rate over his last 3 starts. And his next three starts are favorable against the Giants, Marlins and White Sox.

Prospect Watch:

Jonny Farmelo SEA made his long awaited season debut on April 29th. Farmelo had been out since mid-June last season with an ACL tear and repair. He’s a 50 FV prospect ranked #109 overall at Fangraphs despite missing almost a full season of development. Still just 20 years old, Farmelo made his season debut at High A and already hit two home runs, scored 3 and drove in 5 in just 4 games. A good stretch from Farmelo could see him hit AA Arkansas before seasons end. Which would allow me to grab and share video with you.

Joe Whitman SF is a name still reserved for deep dynasty leagues. The big lefty is out of Kent State and was the 69th player taken in the 2023 draft. Whitman showed glimpses of his potential last season at A ball and High A. It was enough to have him start 2025 at AA where he is carrying a 6/1 K/BB rate on the season. What has him included here is his May 3rd outing against the AA Yankees, where Whitman threw 6 innings of no-hit baseball while striking out 10. This followed three rocky outings prior, so it’s all in perspective and the development process. Whitman looks like a future SP for the Giants though, possibly as early as second half 2026.

JJ Wetherholt STL is hitting .300 at AA with an 11% walk rate and a K rate below 13%. From May 9 to May 17 Wetherholt went 16 for 36 with 4 doubles and a home run while striking out just twice. That’s a hot streak and now Wetherholt is on his way to Arkansas for a 6 game series against the Travelers. Weather permitting I should have some video of Wetherholt over the next 3-4 days.

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