Fantasy Baseball Rundown May 2
May 2, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Fantasy Baseball Rundown May 2
Today we are doing a rundown of players that stand out in Fantasy Baseball over the last few days. Stats referenced are through games played on May 1, 2025.
Who among us had Cal Raleigh SEA tied for the MLB lead in steals by a catcher? The Big Dumper had just 7 bags over 464 career games coming into 2025. So, of course, he’s logged 4 steals already this year. This goes along with leading all catchers with 10 home runs and 19 runs scored while tied for 2nd with 18 RBI. He’s also sitting on a career high .341 OBP despite the usual low average (.233). Julio Rodriguez gets much of the attention in Seattle but Raleigh is the Mariners team leader. And there is zero reason to think this doesn’t continue. Well, everything but the SB rate.
Caught an update on Wednesday that George Kirby SEA might begin a rehab assignment as early as this weekend. Shoulder issues are a huge concern for pitchers, so the timing of Kirby’s rehab is encouraging. The Mariners need Kirby back and healthy with Logan Gilbert down - and we need him in Fantasy Baseball too. Kirby has a career 3.43 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and a minuscule 1.13 BB/9. He’s been incredibly consistent over his 3+ year career and hopefully we get more of the same when he returns. If you have Kirby rostered, you can’t yet get full and fair value in a trade so hold. If you are looking to acquire, don’t pay full price either. There’s still an unknown element until he is back and pitching well.
Staying with the Mariners for one more, we have Jorge Polanco SEA who was a very late dart if drafted at all this season. More accurately, he has been free agent gold for those that went digging. Polanco is sitting on a .384/12/9/25/1 slash, which looks even more amazing given a K rate of only 11.3%. He’s also hitting the ball harder than ever and getting to the barrel almost 20% of the time. Zero chance the pace continues but the strong production could. Just look at Polanco’s 2021 season when he delivered .269/97/33/98/11 for a reference point. Hope you were fortunate enough to grab him and ride the wave or even flip for another need.
Nick Kurtz ATH came up with big fanfare and rightfully so. It was a meteoric rise through the minors in which he logged only 147 at-bats before the call. It’s been just 28 big league AB’s so far, no where near enough to get settled and evaluate the results. But the 0% walk rate and 50% K rate are concerning. As is the fact that the A’s have benched Kurtz against a couple of lefties already. This is an A’s team competing in the AL West so the leash might not be that long. In redraft if you have have the bench room, ride him there until things hopefully pick up. Unless you are in a deeper league you could also drop Kurtz if you need the roster spot. For dynasty Kurtz remains a significant long term asset.
Logan O’Hoppe LAA is one of the few threats in the Angels lineup right now. He’s hit 5th for the most part and may find himself moving up in the order if he can reduce his 35% K rate. The K’s are the primary blemish on a very solid .280/12/9/15/0 slash. O’Hoppe also avoids split issues as he has 8 of his 9 home runs with a .272 BA against same side pitching (RHP). The production looks real and is supported by the 20 home runs O’Hoppe hit last year. Now with Zach Neto back in the lineup and producing O’Hoppe should have even more RBI opps moving forward.
There’s been smoke around Ronald Acuna Jr.’s (ATL) return over the past week. It’s not much of a stretch to interpret that there could be communication issues between Acuna Jr. and the Braves. That part aside, we are now into May and he’s not yet started a rehab assignment. Given that we are talking about a significant knee surgery it’s getting more likely that Acuna Jr. doesn’t return to the Braves before June. What’s the implication? Well, Acuna Jr. was a top 40 pick in redraft and we were in full avoid mode just based upon the unknown and the probability steals would be down. Now we’re looking at Acuna Jr. potentially missing the first two months of the season. There’s virtually zero chance for profit if you drafted Acuna Jr. that high but there may be a trade opportunity to acquire in some leagues if an owner is frustrated or in need of stats right now.
Sarah Langs tweeted last night that Jose Ramirez CLE has joined the 250/250 club. With 260 career home runs and 250 career stolen bases JRam is the first Cleveland player to to do this, the first 3rd baseman to accomplish it, the 2nd switch-hitter (Carlos Beltran), and just the 24th player overall. Ramirez has been Fantasy gold since 2017 and even approaching 33yo he’s slashing .261/14/5/15/7 while continuing to be very difficult to strikeout. Some of the production looks a bit light so I checked out Mar/Apr 2024 for a comp and found a .252/19/5/24/4 slash. It’s similar with the exception of runs scored and RBI both down in ’25. Until proven otherwise it’s best to never count JRam out and we should expect the production to balance out by years end. Oh, an added note, last May Ramirez delivered a huge .295/23/11/33/4.
Teoscar Hernandez LAD was a fade for me in redrafts this year. This was based on valuation given that Teoscar was coming off the board in the 55-60 ADP range. I had him ranked 89th and I’m taking a moment here to accept an early whiff. Rotowire’s custom ranker has Teoscar as the #3 overall fantasy player so far in traditional 5x5. With a .310/19/9/32/4 slash he’s sitting right behind Kyle Tucker CHC and just in front of Elly De La Cruz CIN. Oddly, Teoscar is doing this with his EV and barrel rates being noticeably down. His K rate is also down (18%) from his career average (29%) and he’s walking a career low 2.5% of the time.
What should we make of all this with Teoscar? First and foremost, the Dodgers are really good and score a ton of runs (3rd behind the Cubs and Yankees). He is benefiting from all the runners on base and capitalizing on those opportunities. This should continue and it certainly looks like Teoscar will earn his ADP and provide profit. What he is unlikely to do is continue to be the 3rd best Fantasy contributor. Or even top 20 for that matter. This presents as a sell high opportunity to address other team needs or maybe it’s one where you ride what is shaping up to be a very strong season.
Roki Sasaki LAD still sits atop many top prospect lists and was generally a top 100 pick in redrafts. We discussed staying off of Sasaki in draft season. Not that we saw this level of struggle coming, it was just based on cost versus potential return for an unknown. The fastball velocity is certainly good at 96.4mph but it’s been the primary issue so far. Sasaki is throwing his heater 51% of the time yet it’s generating just a 9% whiff rate - so fooling very few. The split finger is his primary weapon against lefties and the slider against righties. Both are getting the job done. Overall though, a 7 K/9 and 6 BB/9 are both problematic and feed an xERA sitting at 5.54 - suggesting Sasaki has actually been a bit lucky so far. If you have redraft shares look to deal Sasaki. He and the Dodgers will figure things out, it just may take some time.
Did you have Michael King and Nick Pivetta leading the Padres staff while Dylan Cease struggles and Randy Vazquez somehow keeps getting starts despite fooling no one? We had a pretty good idea about King and thought Pivetta would slide in as a solid #3 or #4 - but what they are both doing has been pretty special. King is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA and almost 11 K/9 over his first 7 games while Pivetta is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 10 K/9 over 6 starts. The Padres will have a strong top 3 when Dylan Cease rights the ship. We’ve talked about Cease having been drafted too high - and still feel that way. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be quite productive. Most advanced metrics paint the picture that Cease is pitching at or near his 2021-2024 levels.
I watched a good portion of Lucas Giolito’s start for the Red Sox Wednesday night. It was mainly out of curiosity given that Giolito was in the neighborhood of 600 days since he had last pitched in an MLB game. What I saw was a bit surprising, Giolito was solid despite mostly working with just the fastball and changeup. He touched 96mph with the fastball and averaged 93.3 across almost 6 IP. It will be a huge boost to the Red Sox if Gio is back, healthy and effective. For Fantasy Baseball it would be hard to roll the dice in anything other than deep leagues. Two more solid starts and that could change. We have to remember the 4.89 ERA Giolito carried in 2022-2023 before injury.
The back of the bullpen in Arizona continues to unfold. The season started with AJ Puk and Justin Martinez splitting closer duties and Kevin Ginkel on the IL. First AJ Puk went down (60 day IL) and now Justin Martinez has had a significant velo drop over his last two outings. This earned Martinez a trip to the IL and probably some imaging to see what is going on physically. In the meantime Shelby Miller has been lights out in a high leverage role and Kevin Ginkel has returned from the IL. Given that Ginkel is just returning and he has a failed effort to close in his past the primary saves job feels like it’s Miller’s to lose. That should be your primary target to acquire. And, per usual with bullpens in todays game, this could change tomorrow.
Gunnar Hoglund ATH is set for a promotion and appears to be drawing the start tonight (May 2). He’s the 19th overall pick in 2021, coming out of Ole Miss. Fangraphs has Hoglund as a 50 FV prospect ranked #89 overall and #3 for the Athletics. In 2025 Hoglund has a 2.43 ERA with 9 K/9 and 2 BB/9 over 29 IP in hitter friendly Las Vegas. He features a fastball, slider, change combo and carries strong command. It will be curious to see if he is set for spot starts or earns his way into the rotation. From a Fantasy Baseball standpoint take a shot in deep leagues but wait and see how this unfolds otherwise.
Last night we heard that Jake Burger TEX is headed to AAA Round Rock to work things out. The expectation is that it will be a brief stay, long enough for Burger to get his swing and timing back on track. You may have read that the Burger’s had a challenging off-season with their newly born daughter’s health. With this in consideration it’s not as surprising that it’s been a rough start to 2025 for the former 1st round pick. Burger can rake when he’s on and we want to see him do well even more than ever now. For Fantasy though, this is really about how deep your league is and what your capacity is to carry a demoted player. If you have an equal or better option available that’s probably the play in most circumstances.
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